台指期貨分享 -- Day Trade①哥

"預期利多"少了一樣，等待周四歐洲央行利率決策會議，外資籌碼優勢強軋台指，颱風過後泡沫破台股還能續漲嗎??

The Federal Reserve said Wednesday that the economy is losing strength and repeated a pledge to take further steps to stimulate growth if the job market doesn't show sustained improvement.

The Fed took no new action after its two-day policy meeting. But it acknowledged in a statement released after the meeting that economic activity had slowed over the first half of the year, unemployment remains elevated and consumer spending has weakened.

The statement was nearly identical to the one issued after the Fed's June meeting, expect for language noting slower growth. The Fed repeated that strains in the global market pose a significant risk to the U.S. economy, the housing market is improving but remains depressed and inflation remains tame.

Policymakers also repeated their plan to hold short-term interest rates at record-low levels until at least late 2014.

Most economists say the Fed could launch another bond-buying program at its September meeting if the economy doesn't show improvement. The goal of the program would be to drive down long-term interest rates and encourage more borrowing and spending.

The statement was approved on an 11-1 vote. Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, dissented for a fifth time this year.

U.S. economic growth slowed to an annual rate of just 1.5 percent from April through June, down from a 2 percent pace in the first quarter.

Fed officials have signaled in speeches their concern about job growth and consumer spending. And Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress last month that the Fed is prepared to take further action if unemployment stays high.

Worries have also intensified about Europe's debt crisis and whether the U.S. economy will fall off a "fiscal cliff" at the end of the year. That's when tax increases and deep spending cuts will take effect unless Congress reaches a budget deal.

The U.S. Labor Department releases the July jobs report on Friday. Economists forecast that U.S. employers added 100,000 jobs in July. That would be only slightly better than the 75,000 a month from April through June and still down from a healthy 226,000 average in the first three months of the year. The unemployment rate is expected to stay at 8.2 percent.

The Fed has already pursued two rounds of purchases of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities.

The Fed has also extended a program called Operation Twist. Under this program, the Fed sells short-term Treasurys and buys longer-term Treasurys. The goal is to lower longer-term interest rates.

Even if the Fed launched a third round of bond purchases, few think that further lowering long-term rates would provide much benefit to the U.S. economy. Most businesses and consumers who aren't borrowing now aren't likely to change their minds if rates slipped a bit more.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note is already just above its record low of 1.39 percent, which it touched last week. The national average rate for a new-car loan barely tops 3 percent. And the average on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell below 3.5 percent last week for the first time on records dating back 60 years.

Some regional Fed bank presidents have expressed concern that expanding the Fed's investment portfolio beyond its current record $2.9 trillion to try to lower rates more would heighten the risk of high inflation later.

Some analysts have also suggested that the Fed might be reluctant to act aggressively as the November election nears, out of concern it could be seen as affecting the vote.

FED週三表示，經濟正在失去強度和反复承諾採取進一步措施，以刺激經濟增長，如果不顯示就業市場持續改善。為期兩天的政策會議後沒有新的動作。但在經濟活動在今年上半年放緩的會議後發表的一份聲明中承認，失業率持續上升和消費者支出已經減弱。

該聲明是美聯儲6月會議後發表的幾乎相同，預計注意到經濟增長放緩的語言。美聯儲重複菌株在全球市場對美國經濟構成重大風險，住房市場正在改善，但仍然低迷和通脹仍然馴服。決策者也重複他們的計劃，直到2014年底，至少短期利率保持在創紀錄的水平低。

大多數經濟學家認為，美聯儲可能在9月的會議上推出另一個債券購買計劃，如果經濟不改善。該計劃的目標是降低長期利率，並鼓勵更多的借貸和支出。11-1表決批准該聲明。里士滿聯邦儲備銀行總裁拉克爾，為今年第五次提出異議。

美國經濟增長放緩至6月份按年率計算僅1.5％，從4月通過，從第一季度的2％的速度下降。美聯儲官員已經暗示發言，他們對就業增長和消費支出的關注。和主席伯南克上個月告訴國會，美聯儲準備採取進一步行動，如果失業率居高不下。此憂慮也加劇歐洲的債務危機和美國經濟是否會掉下來的“財政懸崖”在今年年底。這是增加稅收和深削減開支時生效，除非國會達到預算協議。

美國勞工部上週五發行的7月份就業報告。經濟學家預測，美國雇主7月新增10萬個職位。這將是僅略高於75,000一個月，從四月至六月，從一個健康的226000在今年前三個月的平均仍下跌。失業率預計將保持在8.2％。

即使美聯儲推出的債券購買的QE3，很少有人認為，進一步降低長期利率對美國經濟提供多少好處。大多數企業和消費者誰不借用現在是不可能改變他們的想法，如果利率下跌多一點。

基準10年期國債的收益率已經高於其創紀錄的1.39％低，它上週觸及。勉強均居全國平均水平的一個新的汽車貸款率3％。和上一個30年期固定抵押貸款利率平均低於3.5％，上週為追溯60年歷史的記錄上的第一次。

節錄於 Yahoo Finace