台指期貨分享 -- Day Trade①哥

美國聯邦儲備委員會主席本·伯南克（Ben Bernanke）週二敦促國會和奧巴馬政府，取得預算協議，以避免增加稅收和削減開支，可能會引發經濟衰退，明年如果沒有這筆交易，被稱為“財政懸崖”的措施，將1月生效。

伯南克還表示，國會必須提高聯邦債務上限，以避免政府國債債務違約。如果這樣做會造成沉重的經濟成本，“他說。伯南克表示，國會也需要從長遠來看，減少聯邦債務，以確保經濟增長和穩定。

所有這些問題的不確定性可能阻礙消費和投資，困擾投資者，美聯儲主席在紐約經濟俱樂部發表演講說。他說，解決財政危機，防止突然和嚴重的經濟衝擊，有助於減少失業和促進增長。“強勁的經濟，反過來，減少赤字，並有助於實現長期的財政可持續性。當被問及在會議後的講話，美聯儲是否可以軟化的影響，財政懸崖的問題和答案，伯南克在他的警告是堅定的。

伯南克還表示，經濟大蕭條的嚴重程度可能已經降低了對美國經濟的潛在增長率。他沒有說多少或如何長期慢於正常的增長可能會持續。從長遠來看，美國經濟每年平均增長約2.5％。經濟學家預測，在七月至九月季度的增長將向上修正，折合成年率為3％左右，高於政府2％的初始估計。不過，他們認為經濟將放緩至低於2％的年增長速度在十月至十二月季度 - 太緩慢，使許多失業的凹痕。

伯南克說，有幾個因素對經濟增長承壓：長期失業已經削弱了許多工人的技能和一些失去了工作停止尋找一個。公司已花了更少的機械，電腦及其他物品，減少其產能。可能鼓勵企業家開始越來越多的公司更嚴格的貸款規則和經濟的不確定性，美聯儲主席說。

即使假設經濟的潛在增速有所回落，伯南克表示，失業，現在為7.9％，是高得離譜。不過，他建議，對經濟增長的拖累褪色隨著經濟的癒合。到12月底，財政的懸崖接近，聯邦政府預計將達到其借款限額。美國財政部長蒂莫西·蓋特納（Timothy Geithner）表示，他將使用相同的演習，他在過去的債務在2011年的對峙，以防止政府債務違約。

但是，這些動作會買只有幾個星期的時間，直到二月底或三月初，前政府將面臨債務違約前景的第一次。在最後的的債務僵局在2011年的夏天，標準普爾下調政府的信用評級從最高級別的AAA至AA +長期證券的缺口。這是有史以來第一次下調美國政府債務。

總統選舉結束後，惠譽國際評級表示，奧巴馬將需要快速與國會達成預算協議，在財政懸崖或失去惠譽對美國國債的AAA評級的風險。目前還不清楚是什麼，如果有的話，美聯儲可以做，以減輕經濟從懸崖以外的國家購買債券，試圖降低長期借貸利率，並刺激消費，它已經使財政。

美聯儲的政策會議的紀要表明，它可能會推出債券購買計劃在12月，以盡量壓低長期利率。新的採購將取代在今年年底到期的債券購買計劃。但會議紀要還指出，“數”的質疑，美聯儲政策制定者將需要額外的債券購買和擔心，保持利率過低，時間過長可能推高通貨膨脹的“一對夫婦”。

一個新的債券購買計劃將在上面的程序，美聯儲9月推出的美元的價格購買40億美元的一個月的抵押貸款債券，以試圖降低長期利率，並購買更實惠的。該計劃表示，美聯儲的主要購買債券，以擴大其持有的第三輪。美聯儲官員在9月會議上還宣布，他們計劃保持到2015年中期，美聯儲的基準短期利率接近零。2008年12月以來，這種隔夜貸款率已經達到創紀錄的低。

原文節錄於 Yahoo Finace

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Tuesday urged Congress and the Obama administration to strike a budget deal to avert tax increases and spending cuts that could trigger a recession next year.

Without a deal, the measures known as the "fiscal cliff" will take effect in January.

Bernanke also said Congress must raise the federal debt limit to prevent the government from defaulting on Treasurys debt. Failure to do so would impose heavy costs on the economy, he said. Bernanke said Congress also needs to reduce the federal debt over the long run to ensure economic growth and stability.

Uncertainty about all these issues is likely holding back spending and investment and troubling investors, the Fed chairman said in a speech to the Economic Club of New York.

Resolving the fiscal crisis would prevent a sudden and severe shock to the economy, help reduce unemployment and strengthen growth, he said.

"A stronger economy will, in turn, reduce the deficit and contribute to achieving long-term fiscal sustainability," Bernanke told the group.

When asked during a question and answer session after the speech whether the Fed could soften the impact of the fiscal cliff, Bernanke was firm in his warning.

"If the economy goes off the broad fiscal cliff, I don't think the Fed has the tools to offset that," Bernanke said.

Bernanke also said the severity of the Great Recession may have reduced the U.S. economy's potential growth rate. He didn't say by how much or how long slower-than-normal growth might persist.

Over the long run, the U.S. economy has grown an average of about 2.5 percent each year. Economists predict growth in the July-September quarter will be revised up to an annual rate of around 3 percent, above the government's initial 2 percent estimate. But they think the economy is slowing to an annual growth rate below 2 percent in the October-December quarter — too slow to make much of a dent in unemployment.

Bernanke said several factors have weighed on growth: Long-term unemployment has eroded many workers' skills and led some who have lost jobs to stop looking for one.

Companies have spent less on machinery, computers and other goods, reducing their production capacity. Stricter lending rules and uncertainty about the economy may have discouraged would-be entrepreneurs from starting more companies, the Fed chairman said.

Even assuming the economy's potential growth has declined, Bernanke said that unemployment, now at 7.9 percent, is abnormally high. He suggested, though, that the drags on economic growth should fade as the economy heals.

By the end of December, just as the fiscal cliff nears, the federal government is expected to hit its borrowing limit. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has said he will resort to the same maneuvers he used during the last debt standoff in 2011 to prevent the government from defaulting on its debt.

But these maneuvers would buy only a few weeks' time, until late February or early March, before the government would face the prospect of a first-ever debt default.

After the last debt standoff in the summer of 2011, Standard & Poor's downgraded the government's credit rating on long-term securities one notch from the highest level of AAA to AA+. It was the first ever downgrade of U.S. government debt.

After the presidential election, Fitch Ratings said Obama would need to quickly reach a budget agreement with Congress over the fiscal cliff or risk losing Fitch's AAA rating on U.S. debt.

It's unclear what, if anything, the Fed could do to cushion the economy from the fiscal cliff beyond the bond purchases it's already making to try to lower long-term borrowing rates and stimulate spending.

The minutes of the Fed's last policy meeting suggest that it will likely unveil a bond buying program in December to try to drive down long-term rates. The new purchases would replace a bond-buying program that expires at year's end.

But the minutes also noted that "several' Fed policymakers questioned whether additional bond buying would be needed and that "a couple" worried that keeping rates too low for too long could drive up inflation.

A new bond buying program would come on top of a program the Fed launched in September to buy $40 billion a month in mortgage bonds to try to reduce long-term interest rates and make home buying more affordable. That program represented the Fed's third round of major bond purchases to expand its holdings.

Fed officials also announced at the September meeting that they planned to keep the Fed's benchmark short-term interest rate near zero through mid-2015. This rate for overnight loans has been at a record low since December 2008.